Paul HUBERT

Researcher, Sciences Po - OFCE

Co-organiser, Workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics

Research Fields: Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Applied Econometrics

Email: paul.hubert@sciencespo.fr

Contact: OFCE, 10 place de Catalogne, 75014 Paris, France

[CV] [Ideas RePEc] [Google Scholar]

 


Working Papers and Work in Progress

» "Central Bank Communications and Inflation Expectations", with Stephen Hansen and Michael McMahon.

» "Policy Responses to Financial Dynamics and Asset Price and Credit Bubbles", with Andrew Filardo and Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul.

» "Central Bank Information and the Effects of Monetary Shocks", July 2017. [pdf]

» "Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation", with Becky Maule, October 2017. [wp2016] [pdf]

» "Does Monetary Policy affect Asset Price Bubbles?", with Christophe Blot and Fabien Labondance, June 2017. [pdf]

» "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations", with Fabien Labondance, February 2017. [pdf]

» "The Intertwining of Credit and Banking Fragility", with Jérôme Creel and Fabien Labondance, December 2017. [pdf]

» "Inflation Expectation Dynamics: The Role of Past, Present and Forward-Looking Information", with Harun Mirza, December 2014. [pdf]


Publications

» "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on the Term Structure of Interest Rates" (forthcoming), International Journal of Central Banking, with Fabien Labondance.

» "Qualitative and Quantitative Central Bank Communication and Inflation Expectations" (2017), B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 7(1), 1-41.

» "The Effect of ECB Monetary Policies on Interest Rates and Volumes" (2016), Applied Economics, 48(47), 4477-4501, with Jérôme Creel and Mathilde Viennot.

» "ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions" (2015), Journal of Forecasting, 34(7), 574-587.

» "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance vs. Signals" (2015), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(4), 771-789.

» "The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts" (2015), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77(5), 655-680.

» "Financial Stability and Economic Performance" (2015), Economic Modelling, 48, 25-40, with Jérôme Creel and Fabien Labondance.

» "Assessing the Link between Price and Financial Stability" (2015), Journal of Financial Stability, 16, 71-88, with Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel, Fabien Labondance and Francesco Saraceno.

» "Has Inflation Targeting Changed the Conduct of Monetary Policy?" (2015), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19(1), 1-21, with Jérôme Creel.

» "FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations" (2014), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 46(7), 1381-1420.

» "An Assesment of the SGP Reform in a Small-Scale Macro Framework" (2013), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(8), 1567-1580, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.

» "The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment" (2012), Journal of Economic Integration, 27, 537-563, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.

» "The Nature of Oil Shocks and the Global Economy" (2012), Energy Policy, 42, 509-520, with Liza Archanskaïa and Jérôme Creel.

» "Constrained Discretion in Sweden" (2012), Research in Economics, 66(1), 33-44, with Jérôme Creel.

    In French

» "De l'importance de la nature des chocs pétroliers" (2010), Revue Economique, 61(3), 511-520, with Liza Archanskaïa and Jérôme Creel.

» "L’adoption du ciblage d’inflation produit-elle un changement de régime?" (2009), Revue Economique, 60(3), 727-735, with Jérôme Creel.


Book Chapters, Non-Refereed Publications, Shorter Papers and Policy Briefs

» "What should the ECB “new normal” look like?" (2017), Monetary Dialogue, November 2017, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "Are European bond markets overshooting?" (2017), Monetary Dialogue, May 2017, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "Financial stability and the ECB" (2017), Monetary Dialogue, February 2017, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "Euro Area Inflation and ECB Policy in a Global Environment" (2016), Politica Economica Journal of Economic Policy, 32(3), 539-554, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "Negative interest rates: incentive or hindrance for the banking system?" (2016), Monetary Dialogue, November 2016, with Christophe Blot.

» "Financial market fragmentation in the euro area" (2016), Monetary Dialogue, September 2016, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "The impact of ECB policies on euro area investment" (2016), Monetary Dialogue, June 2016, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "Rooms for extension of the ECB’s QE programme" (2016), Monetary Dialogue, February 2016, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "Policy Implications of Learning from More Accurate Central Bank Forecasts" (2015), Economics Bulletin, 35(1), 466-474.

» "Revisiting the Greenbook's Relative Forecasting Performance" (2015), Revue de l’OFCE, 137, 151-179.

» "The ability of the ECB to control inflation in a global environment" (2015), Monetary Dialogue, November 2015, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "The redistributive effects of QE" (2015), Monetary Dialogue, June 2015, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "Country Size, Economic Performance and Volatility" (2015), Manuscript OFCE, August 2015, with Olfa Alouini.

» "The QE experience: worth a try?" (2015), Monetary Dialogue, March 2015, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "Dealing with the ECB’s Triple Mandate?" (2014), Revue de l’OFCE, 134, 163-173, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "Assessing the Future Sustainability of French Public Finances" (2014), in Fiscal and Debt Policies for the Future, Arestis-Sawyer (eds), Palgrave, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.

» "French Public Finances at Risk?” (2014), Panoeconomicus, 61(1), Special issue, 1-19, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.

    In French

» "Le risque bancaire en zone euro" (2017), Revue de l’OFCE, 151, 157-176, with Christophe Blot.

» "Causes et conséquences des taux d'intérêts négatifs" (2016), Revue de l’OFCE, 148, 219-245, with Christophe Blot.

» "L’impact du découplage des politiques monétaires de la BCE et de la Fed" (2016), Revue de l’OFCE, 147, 223-258, with Christophe Blot and Christine Rifflart.

» "Trois questions autour de l’impact du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française" (2016), Revue de l’OFCE, 147, 197-222, with Eric Heyer.

» "La désinflation manquante: un phénomène américain uniquement?" (2016), Manuscript OFCE, April 2016, with Mathilde Le Moigne.

» "La politique monétaire crée-t-elle des bulles?" (2015), Revue de l’OFCE, 144, 257-286, with Christophe Blot and Fabien Labondance.

» "Une analyse empirique du lien entre investissement public et privé" (2015), Revue de l’OFCE, 144, 331-356, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.

» "Les politiques monétaires non conventionnelles: quelles actions pour quels résultats?" (2015), Problèmes Economiques, (HS)8, 99-107, with Christophe Blot and Fabien Labondance.

» "Que peut-on attendre de l’assouplissement quantitatif de la BCE?" (2015), Revue de l’OFCE, 138, 265-290, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "Comment lutter contre la fragmentation du système bancaire de la zone euro?" (2014), Revue de l’OFCE, 136, 171-219, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "Politiques monétaires: est-ce le début de la fin?" (2013), Revue de l’OFCE, 130, 225-262, with Christophe Blot et al.

» "Europe, États-Unis: la fin du rattrapage?" (2010), Cahiers Français, 357, 38-43, with Jérôme Creel.


Links

» Olfa Alouini

» Liza Archanskaïa

» Christophe Blot

» Jérôme Creel

» Eric Heyer

» Mathilde Le Moigne

» Fabien Labondance

» Becky Maule

» Harun Mirza

» Christine Rifflart

» Francesco Saraceno and his blog

» Mathilde Viennot

» OFCE

» Blog de l'OFCE